Cheltenham Festival Sample Preview

Below is the previews and tips send to subscribers on the Thursday of the 2021 festival.

Below is today’s previews and tips. The recommended bets are all with bookmakers with the horse highlighted in bold, and are the only bets that will be included in the official results, but I will add some extra advise as well, which may be in the form of a bet on the exchanges, and I will also list horses that were close to being a bet, and the minimum price I would have backed them at, as well as the stake if they had been that price. My criteria for a bet is fairly strict, but if you’d prefer more bets then by all means back the extra advice if they are close enough to the min price. So for an example –  Singlefarmpayment (min price 10.0, 2 Points each way) means the minimum price I wanted to back Singlefarmpayment was 9/1, and he would have been a 2 points each way bet if he was that price before I send the email. This is useful if they drift to that price after the email is sent. I also include a min price for the official bets in case you didn’t get on at the advised price. I will use decimal odds as it’s better to give an exact min price, especially for the extra bets. So 2.5 is 6/4, 5.0 is 4/1 etc.. All the min prices are based on the win part of the bet, so it’s fine to back a horse win only if you cant get on with the bookmakers.

Just 3 official bets today, we got done with a good few shortening overnight, and a few more that are over the min price on the exchanges that haven’t hit it yet with the bookies. We haven’t had much go our way so far so hopefully we get a bit of luck the next two days. There are currently 5 extra bets over the min price on the exchanges.

Best of luck
Declan

13:20 Cheltenham – March Novices Chase

13:55 Cheltenham – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

Milliner has had just five starts, and after an injury layoff of more than two years, he stayed on really well to be fifth at Navan over two and a half miles. Last time he sat closer to the pace and looked set to win when hitting the front off the final bend over three miles at Punchestown, but was collared after the last and finished a two and a half length third. Given the UK handicapper tends to give Irish horses a few pounds higher rating, and even more so for the lower rated horses, then a five pound higher mark of 126 looks very kind after such a promising run. Those two recent runs were on heavy ground, but he won on good ground on his debut, and it could be better ground will bring out the best in him. I think he’s the most likely winner of this, and even though the 20/1 he was yesterday is long gone, he is just under the min price on the exchanges currently.

14:30 Cheltenham –  Ryanair Chase

Allaho was placed in two grade one’s as a novice hurdler over three miles, and was third in last years RSA over three miles, and it would be hard to say he doesn’t get the trip, but he never shaped like it was his optimum either, and was always looking to go a stride faster in last years RSA. You were left with the impression that letting him stride on over shorter would really see this fine looking horse at his best.

He did drop back to two and a half for his seasonal debut this season, but we couldn’t see much of a race run in heavy fog, although his jockey reported he made two bad mistakes, which likely explained his poor run. He ran better next time back over three miles in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, but he was still beaten twenty lengths despite being patiently ridden in a race the leaders did too much too soon in. He was still ahead of the winner jumping the second last that day, and looked to be travelling as well as him too, so it certainly looked like three miles in a stamina sapping race was just too much for him.

Back over two and a half miles at Thurles last time, Allaho got back on the winning trail with a three lengths win over Elimay. It’s a hard race to analyze though as initially Allaho went a decent gallop with only two other horses going with him, and was nearly twenty lengths clear of Elimay after a few fences, but the pace steadied thereafter. By the time it really picked up jumping the second last Elimay was only two lengths down, so it looked like Allaho gained his ground by going quite quick, where as the runner up gained it back in the slow part of the race. From the second last home Allaho was fifteen lengths quicker than he was over the same period on the previous lap, and the three length winning margin very likely flattered the second. Whether that form is good enough to win a Ryanair is harder to gauge, but he has run to form in both his runs at Cheltenham, his RSA run is strong from over a trip likely further than his optimal, and he still has potential to do better.

Min’s best from is better than anything the others in this have done, and has always looked like around two and a half miles is his optimum trip. He was very impressive when winning at Aintree over two and a half in April 2019, and brought the best form into last years Ryanair by virtue of a second place to Chacun Pour Soi over two miles and one at the Dublin Racing Festival. While Min duly won this race last year, the presence of Saint Calvados a neck behind in second suggested he didn’t need to be quite at his best.

He also didn’t need to reproduce his best form to beat Tornado Flyer by a length on his comeback run in the John Durkan, a race that should never have been run due to the poor visibility from fog. He was pulled up last time in the same race he used as his warm up for the Ryanair last year, but he had a valid excuse having walked through the seventh fence. He made a very funny shape over the previous fence too, and it’s possible something wasn’t quite right. He has always been very consistent so there is no reason he won’t bounce back, but he is ten now, and does need to prove he is still capable of his very best form, but then as already stated he won last year without needing to produce that. This years race looks to have much more strength in depth though.

Imperial Aura was an impressive winner of the novice handicap off a mark of 143 at last years festival, and made a winning reappearence with a two and a half length defeat of Windsor Avenue at Carlisle. He wasn’t all out but at the same time didn’t do anything you wouldn’t expect him to do. He then stepped up to grade two company at Ascot, and while he was meeting a better class of horse, and looked to show improved form with a five length win, you wouldn’t want to get too carried away either, as the second made numerous mistakes, while the third was very weak in the market on his first start for a new trainer, with the only other runner unseating a long way out.

In his only start since then Imperial Aura only got as far as the second at Kempton in early January when he came down. He normally jumps well though so that was likely just a blip. With the Ascot form not being the most solid, and the horses he beat at Carlisle being a few classes removed from what he will meet in this, he does need to step up again, although given he was on an upward curve before last time, he does still have the potential to improve.

Mister Fisher was fourth to Samcro in last years Marsh Novices Chase, but he had no real excuses that day. He ran no race on his return in a handicap off 155, but bounced back to form last time, when winning the Peterborough Chase which was rescheduled at Cheltenham. He travelled very well through the race but got in a bit close to the last, doing well to battle back when challenged on the run in, and all told had a bit more in hand than the just under two lengths margin. He will be meeting much better horses in this though and needs to find more.

Melon has been operating a the top level for a good few years now, and has a great record at Cheltenham, he was second in the Supreme Novices back in 2017, before coming second in the Champion Hurdle for the next two years, while last year he went down by just a nose to Samcro in the Marsh Novices Chase. This season he was third to Min at Punchestown before stepping up to three miles at Leopardstown, and while stamina looked a concern beforehand, he would likely have won that day, but for an overly aggressive ride, when he kicked on a mile out off what was a decent gallop.

He finished last of five in the Irish Gold Cup last time when given a more patient ride, but he never went with the same zest as he had at Christmas,  and getting in close to a few fences didn’t help his cause either. It’s possible that although it was five weeks later, he still wasn’t over the hard race he had on his previous start. Melon has run well below par at that February meeting at Leopardstown for each of the last three seasons though, yet each time that didn’t stop him from bouncing back to his best at Cheltenham, and if he does the same here, he would have every chance when an attacking ride over this trip could be his ideal conditions.

Samcro beat Melon by a nose last year, but while Melon has put up a even better effort since then, Samcro has had just a satisfactory reappearence third at Down Royal before disappointing when upped to three miles last time, and was beaten before you could blame stamina. He looks plenty short at just 8/1 now.

Fakir D’Oudairies won a grade one novice over two and a half miles in December 2019, but Samcro looked to be travelling better when he fell two out that day, and the winner was also receiving a very generous eight pounds four year old allowance. As such he ran a cracker without the allowance to come second in the Arkle back at two miles at last years Festival, and may even have won if he hadn’t got the second last wrong. He ran below that level in his first two starts back this season, but was much better last time, when second, albeit eight lengths behind Chacun Por Soi at Leopardstown. Before last years Arkle I would have thought two and half miles would suit him better, but his two best runs on form are now over shorter, and the way he travelled in both the Arkle, and last time over two miles and one, would leave me less confident that this two miles and five is his optimum. I still think he should get the trip, and if he settles okay he could still improve for it, which would put him bang there.

Saint Calvados was second in a handicap off 157 in early January last year, before taking a big step forward by pushing Min to a neck in this race. He still had potential to improve as it was only his second start over two and a half miles, and while he hasn’t backed up that run in two starts this season, both of those races were over three miles and he pulled hard when not seeming to get home in the King George. Last time he didn’t go with quite the same zest and given his stamina doubts he didn’t look to be travelling well enough to figure when he fell halfway down the back straight. This is likely his best trip, but this years race could have more depth to it, and he will need to improve again.

Of the others Real Steel makes some appeal, although he needs to bounce back from a pulled up effort in the King George last time, and he was also below form when only third of four to Imperial Aura on his first start for Paul Nicholls at Ascot back in November, but he drifted in the betting that day, and ran like he needed it, only fading from the second last having shaped second best to that point. The cause for optimism is his run in the Gold Cup last year, when his move into contention out wide on the last bend was very impressive, before he failed to get home, but he certainly shaped that day that he would go very close in a Ryanair if in the same form, and you would imagine this race has been the target since his stable switch.

Saint Calvados with withdrawn from the race yesterday evening after I wrote this, and Real Steel and Dashel Drasher are now non runners too. I left in the commentary on them, but the min prices have been adjusted to account for their absence.

Recommended Bets 

No Bet

Allaho (min price 6.0, 3 Points Win)

Melon (min price 10.5, 2 Points Win) 10.5 currently on exchanges

——————————————————————————

15:05 Cheltenham – Stayers Hurdle

Paisley Park won seven races in a row, including this race in 2019, until a flop in last years race. There has been plenty of talk of him hitting a flat spot in his races, as if he slows down then picks up again, which is total nonsense. What happens is he isn’t the quickest and in slowly run races he often gets outpaced when they quicken, before reeling them in when they slow down. Last years race should have really suited him as they went off far too quick, but he was just below par for whatever reason. He got beaten on his comeback at Newbury but looked back in form, a steady enough pace no good to him, and he was only getting going at the line.

In his only run since Paisley Park got up late to beat Thyme Hill and Roksana in the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot. The pace again wasn’t strong but picked up far enough out so that while he was outpaced when it did, and didn’t look likely to win even coming to the last, the others faltered on the run in and he got there in time. His dependency on others setting a fast enough gallop is his Achilles heel, but a few others like to lead, so there is  good chance of an even gallop, and if he gets one he should be very hard to beat, in what looks a weak renewal with Thyme Hill out.

Sire Du Berlais has won the Pertemps at the festival for the last two years, off marks of 145 and 152, but he would need a good bit more to win this. He looked to find the trip on the short side when getting up late to win over two and a half miles on his comeback, but needed the runner up to do too much too soon that day, and last time when stepped into grade one company over three miles, he was beaten over six lengths in third. The less than even pace wouldn’t have suited but he certainly didn’t do anything to suggest he’s a top class staying hurdler, and while Paisley Park aside this looks a weak race, he looks plenty short at just 6/1

Flooring Porter was only sixth off a mark of just 118 at Leopardstown over Christmas in 2019. One year on and he was running out a six length winner of a grade one, beating three of his rivals today into second, third and fourth. He did nick six lengths at the start and you’d imagine he won’t be let away with that today, but he didn’t go overly quick, and the likes of Sire Du Berlais were only a few lengths behind him when the pace picked up three out, and he was going away again from the last, so while the margin possible flattered him a little over the staying on The Storyteller, he was still a worthy winner, and given his improvement so far, whose to say he can’t find some more. He has won without leading too, so if anything else wants to go quick, sitting handy should be fine.

Fury Road was a close third to Monkfish at last years festival, but hasn’t really gone on so far this season. He won a weak race on his comeback, before coming only fourth of seven behind Flooring Porter at Leopardstown, and he was well positioned just a couple of lengths behind the winner when the pace picked up. He set a steady pace when dropped back to two miles and five last time, and having got first run on Beacon Edge it was a little disappointing that he got run out of it close home, although he was getting done for speed more than anything and this trip should suit better, and while he needs to improve, he’s still lightly enough raced to do so. I was interested in him when he was 11.0 yesterday, I had a min price of 10.0 for him, but he’s got very well backed since, and is unlikley to hit that before the race.

The Storyteller has some high class chase form, and is no slouch over hurdles either. He was second off 149 in the Pertemps at last years festival, and filled the same position behind Flooring Porter last time, having been poorly positioned when the pace picked up, and then being a little outpaced beofre staying on well after the last. He left the impression he would have been clear second best had they gone a better gallop, and while he doesn’t have the scope to improve as a couple of these, he’s very consistent and goes well at Cheltenham.

Lisnagar Oscar was a shock winner of this last year, having not previously looked up to this class, and while there was no fluke about it, as she sat closer and committed sooner off the ludicrous gallop set by Apples Jade, and did well to keep going in the straight, the form has a very substandard look to it. She probably ran to a similar level when second at Haydock last time, but doesn’t look any better than that, and you would expect she will need to find more to win this years race.

Vindication has been running over fences the past two seasons, and this seems a bit of an afterthought having fallen in the Ladbrokes Trophy over fences when last seen in November. He hasn’t run over hurdles since November 2018 and it’s a big ask to suddenly show himself as top class in this discipline having not yet done so over fences.

Beacon Edge just best Fury Road last time, but that two miles and five trip was the furthest he’s run over and it was a test of speed more than stamina, so he needs to show he stays this far, and will need to improve for it too.

Recommended Bets 

1 Point Win Flooring Porter at 15.0 with Paddy Power, William Hill +more (min price 13.0)

Fury Road (min price 10.0, 2 Points Win)

Paisley Park (min price 4.0, 5 Points Win)

——————————————————————–

15:40 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase

Farclas won the Triumph Hurdle back in 2018, but didn’t do much the following season over hurdles, before winning three novice chases in the summer of 2019. Of the track for over a year he went into handicap chases off a mark of 142 when fifth at Punchestown in November, before a third in the Paddy Power over three miles over Christmas. Raised just a pound for that effort, and dropped back to two miles and five, he was fourth of twenty two, again at Leopardstown, last month. I thought he was unlucky not to win though, as he was travelling well going to the second last, but hit it hard, and he must have had a good bit left at the time to work his way into to he lead after the last, before fading close home. He runs off just three pounds higher here and looks to have a rock solid chance.

Sully D’oc AA stayed on strongly to win over two miles and three at Ascot in October last year, and looked set to defy a ten pounds rise for that when getting the last wrong and sprawling on landing at Newbury a month later. He was staying on again at the line having lost all momentum on landing, and I think he would would have. He seemed to appreciated the decent ground for those two runs, which is likely why he was put away for this. The fact he made that mistake last time means he is only off a mark just two pounds higher today, while the horse who benefited from that error has since won off three pounds higher. He opened up at a huge 25/1 for this, but while he is now under the min price at 12/1 with the bookies, he is trading around 15.0 on the exchanges.

Recommended Bets 

No Bet

Farclas (min price 8.4, 2 points Each Way)

Sully D’oc AA (min price 14.5, 1 Point Each Way) currently 15.0 on exchanges

—————————————————————————————————–

16:15 Cheltenham – Mares Novice Hurdle

Hook Up was thrown in at the deep end in the Triumph Hurdle last season on just her second hurdle start, and she ran poorly. She easily won on her seasonal debut at Fairyhouse before coming second to today’s rival Royal Kahala at the same track next time. She made a mistake at the last but had little excuses on the day, as she was better positioned than the winner when they quickened off a steady gallop. She does however look more likely of that pair to appreciate this shorter trip and better ground though, and Hook Up also showed improved form last time, when a seven and a half lengths fourth to Appreciate It at Leopardstown in February. The winner hacked up in the Supreme yesterday, while the horse who was only just over a length ahead of her would have been second but for falling at the last, so the form is very strong in comparison to the standard of this race. She also did very well to get that close after a few pretty sketchy jumps and if she can improve in that department, she must surely go well here.

16:50 Cheltenham – Kim Muir Chase

Musical Slave was second off a mark off 133 at Uttoxeter last March, and despite making a few really bad mistakes, over a trip much too short, he was only beaten three lengths at Newbury on his comeback off a mark of 137. If you thought watching that run that he’d get to run in the Kim Muir off a mark two pounds lower, you’d be expecting him to be a well backed favourite, but he unseated next time at Doncaster, when going well five out, and again made numerous mistakes at Ascot last time, and although he was beaten sixteen lengths in the end, he did well to work his way into some sort of contention jumping the second last. His jumping is an issue, but better ground and a longer trip might help. It was good ground at Newbury and while his Uttoxeter run was on heavy it is the Newbury run that screamed well handicapped, and his best hurdles form was also on better ground. If he can get into a good rhythm early he definitely has the ability to win off a mark of 135.

Deise Aba was fifth in this race last year off the same mark, having won at Sandown on his previous start. After two pulled up runs before Christmas, he bounced back in the same race at Sandown last time, battling well for a four and a quarter length win. The worry today would be that turned into a real slog but it was six weeks ago so he should have gotten over the race by now. In this race last year he shaped a bit better than the result as he hit the fifth last quite hard and it had to have an effect on his finishing effort.