Cheltenian a cracking bet for County Hurdle – Cheltenham 2014

Cheltenian a cracking bet for County Hurdle – Cheltenham 2014

The County Hurdle is run on Friday the 14th of March this year. Normally a very competitive race there is no reason to think this year will be any different. The weights for all the Cheltenham Handicaps came out yesterday, and on first look the horse that stands out the most at the prices, is Cheltenian in the County.

Cheltenian has a weight of 10-9, and while a few of the top horses may come out, and he could end up with a little more on his back, it’s the rating the horse runs off that matters anyway. His rating is 137, and there are plenty of reasons for thinking that he can rate much higher.

Back in March 2011, Cheltenian won the bumper at the Festival. He was a very impressive 5l winner, and about 7 of the last 10 Cheltenham Festival Bumper winners went on to rate higher than 137 over hurdles, a few of them much higher. Cheltenian was off injured after that race until February 2013, when he came 2nd to Minella Forfitness at Newbury over hurdles. He looked all over the winner that day when he went clear, but seemed to blow up and got nailed late.

Minella For Fitness won a big handicap at Aintree on his next start off a mark of 135, and then came 2nd in an 18 runner race at Sandown off 144. Cheltenian was getting 6lb from the winner that day, but not many who watched that race would have backed him to confirm the form, even if they met off levels next time. The 3rd horse was Valdez who is now rated 153 over fences, and you can’t escape the fact the bare form made Cheltenian’s opening handicap mark of 134 look generous, with the scope for plenty of improvement.

Cheltenian’s next start was in the Supreme Novice Hurdle just 3 weeks later. He didn’t run great then, but he had a hard race, when finishing tired at Newbury and may have bounced. This season he easily won a maiden hurdle before trying to exploit that 134 mark at Newbury, in the Betfair Hurdle. The ground was heavy which wouldn’t have suited, yet after travelling well, he was bang there the whole way up the straight, before finishing a 4l, 4th.

For a horse having only his 4th hurdle start that was a great run, and again he left the imression he can do much better. There seemed to be a strong wind that day, and I thought he wasn’t entirely comfortable with it in the straight, when he didn’t have any cover. It was the same for the others but Cheltenian carried his head akwardly at times, and he appeals as a horse that will be at his best kept on the bridle for longer, with cover.

The ground that day was heavy, which is very unlikley to see him at his best. Good to Soft ground is odds on favourite to be the official ground come the Tuesday of Cheltenham, so it would be around the same price to be good to soft on the Friday. That would be a huge help. It was good ground when Cheltenian won the bumper here, and in truth it can’t be any worse than Newbury, and any improvment is a plus. Up just 3lb for that run, Cheltenian should be favourite in my book.

The top price currently is 16/1, and

[adrotate banner=”18″] who are now going non runner no bet on all the races at the Festival, are also 16/1. If you don’t have an account with them, open one and avail of a free bet too. The NRNB concession protects us, if for any reason the horse doesn’t make the race, and considering he had an injury that keep him off the track for almost 2 years before this is important, especially when they are also top price.

Friday 14th March – County Hurdle Tips – Cheltenham 2014

1 PT Each Way Cheltenian at 16/1 NRNB with [adrotate banner=”18″] [adrotate banner=”17″]

 

If you want my Best Bets for Cheltenham 2014 make sure you sign up for my email list. Also read my Advice on Maximizing your Return On Investment at Cheltenham 2014.

Stakes are on a scale of 0-8 points. A 20/1 shot will generally be a 1 point bet, where as at the opposite end, a 6/4 shot will generally be an 8 point bet. The aim is to return around 20 points on the win part of each bet. I will aim for higher than 20 points with stronger selections, and lower for ones that I’m not as strong on. For more on staking read my Staking Plans.

Make sure you maximize your profits by signing up to new accounts to ensure you get the best price, while also availing of Free Bets. Also check out Cheltenham Specials for all the great offers bookies have over the Festival.

NRNB means Non Runner No Bet

BOG means best odds guarenteed

Please Share
By |2018-01-08T15:15:54+00:00February 27th, 2014|Uncategorized|0 Comments